Technology Roadmaps and Industry Standards: A Path Towards Grid Parity

SEMI (Weiss) - Based upon the experiences of other industries, technology developments in cell efficiency and increases in manufacturing economies of scale will not be enough to reach grid parity goals as fast as the world desires. The solar PV industry needs to look at meaningful cost reduction through a global, robust and well-organized supply chain. The current learning curve for the industry is not as steep as other electronic industries, especially semiconductors which use many of the same processes, materials, and suppliers as PV. A faster learning curve for the solar PV industry could be accomplished through better industry collaboration, including industry standards and technology roadmaps. 

Roadmaps are just now being considered by the industry. A recent survey of cell and module manufacturers, equipment and material suppliers, and other key players ranked lack of industry roadmap and effective collaboration second behind government polices as a key barrier to industry growth. However, some industry participants believe it is too early for a technology roadmap and that engaging in an open, public dialogue could be harmful. Collaboration opponents object that roadmaps cannot define industry growth in such a dynamic market environment.

Last month, SEMI PV Group announced the formation of the European Crystalline Cell Technology and Manufacturing Group (CTM). This special interest group of eight crystalline solar cell manufacturers (Q-Cells, Deutsche Cell, Bosch Solar Energy, Schott Solar, Sovello, Sunways, SolarWatt/Systaic Cells and Solland) is working together in a pre-competitive environment to address the technology challenges facing the photovoltaic industry. The CTM Group has begun work on a crystalline solar cell technology roadmap up to the year 2020. This particular roadmap describes the development of crystalline solar cell technology with focus on materials, manufacturing processes, and product development. As part of this activity, the priority of the CTM Group will be the definition of the development processes for raw materials, cell technology and cell manufacturing. The group also aims to optimize the interfaces within the entire manufacturing supply chain to help achieve this goal. How this European group leverages their roadmap activities to the global supply chain and connects with industry cluster efforts in other regions have yet to be determined.

Technology roadmaps and industry standards are complex issues for the industry to consider, involving fundamental issues of competition and cooperation. Along with the CTM Group, discussions are underway between other key stakeholders around the world trying to identify areas where cooperation makes sense. As these discussions continue, the industry has the opportunity to learn from the semiconductor industry and find its own path, to find its own Moore’s Law that drives down costs and accelerates grid parity, enabling a great solar era unsupported by government incentives.

For continuing dialog on industry collaboration, check out PV Group organized programs at Intersolar North America.